IDC Forecasts Apple’s Move Into the Foldable iPhone Market

For years, the smartphone industry has been gripped by rumors regarding Apple's potential entry into the foldable device market. While competitors like Samsung, Google, and Motorola have already released multiple generations of folding phones, Apple has remained notably absent from this trend. However, new projections from market intelligence firm IDC provide a clearer picture of what a foldable iPhone launch might look like.

According to IDC’s latest outlook, Apple is expected to make a significant impact once it enters the space. The firm anticipates that the company could ship approximately 10 million foldable iPhones within the first year of their release. This forecast highlights the immense influence of the Apple brand, as the company rarely enters a product category early, choosing instead to wait until it can perfect the technology and ensure a seamless user experience.

Foldable smartphones have historically occupied a niche segment of the mobile market, often carrying high price tags and facing concerns regarding screen durability. Despite these challenges, the category has seen steady growth. Industry analysts suggest that by the time Apple introduces its version of a foldable device—rumored to be a foldable iPad or a large-screen iPhone—the technology will have matured significantly. This timing could allow Apple to capture a substantial share of the premium smartphone market.

IDC’s data indicates that while the total volume of foldable shipments is currently modest compared to traditional slab-style smartphones, the compound annual growth rate for the segment remains promising. By shipping 10 million units, Apple would immediately establish itself as a dominant player, potentially legitimizing the foldable form factor for a massive base of consumers who have been waiting for a more reliable, refined option.

There is ongoing debate regarding the exact hardware Apple will pursue. Some reports suggest that Apple is focusing on a foldable tablet-like device first, which would serve as a bridge between the iPad and the iPhone. Others point to patents describing a traditional clamshell or book-style folding phone. Regardless of the form factor, industry experts believe Apple’s software ecosystem, specifically iOS and iPadOS, will be the key differentiator. The ability to seamlessly hand off tasks between a folded and unfolded state will be critical to the device's success.

Supply chain experts note that Apple’s entry into the foldable market would also drive innovation among display manufacturers. As demand for foldable panels increases, costs are expected to decrease, and overall durability is likely to improve. Samsung Display and LG Display, currently the primary suppliers of foldable screens, would likely see a major shift in their production priorities if Apple places large-scale orders.

For now, fans and investors remain in a holding pattern. While IDC’s projections provide a concrete goal for Apple, the company has not confirmed any official release dates. As the smartphone market faces slowing growth in overall unit shipments, hardware companies are looking to foldables as a way to reignite consumer interest and maintain high average selling prices. Whether Apple will disrupt this market or simply follow the current trends remains to be seen, but the industry expects that when they do arrive, they will arrive with the scale and polish that has become the hallmark of the brand.